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Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Riga Mariners

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Rīgas FS II

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.8%1-14.1%1-21.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.2%2-17.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.9%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.0%4+-116.1%4+-26.9%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 89.3% 1.12 -14.7%

Draw 15.6% 11.8% 8.50 +19.6%

Away win 8.2% 7.7% 13.00 +4.0%

Over 2.5 72.0% 80.0% 1.25 -10.0%

Over 3.5 52.0% 61.3% 1.63 -15.2%

BTTS 55.0% 52.6% 1.90 +4.5%

Home O1.5 77.3% 86.2% 1.16 -10.3%

Away O1.5 23.7% 24.4% 4.10 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.0%

H 76% / xG 3.4-0.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.2%

#3 4–0 8.0%

#4 3–1✓ 7.9%

#5 1–1 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga Mariners3.4

Rīgas FS II0.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 2.00

RĪGAS FS II · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.56 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga Mariners (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -14.7%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +19.6%

Rīgas FS II (A) 8.2%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga Mariners face Rīgas FS II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga Mariners a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Rīgas FS II 8%, so Riga Mariners are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Riga Mariners and 0.8 for Rīgas FS II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga Mariners are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Rīgas FS II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +57.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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