Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK

Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 10:00

Mārupe

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leevon / PPK

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.0%0-26.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.5%1-111.4%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 27.8% 3.60 +33.6%

Draw 25.3% 25.0% 4.00 +0.7%

Away win 37.6% 58.8% 1.70 -36.1%

Over 2.5 60.4% 66.7% 1.50 -9.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

BTTS 61.8% 66.2% 1.51 -6.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 41.7% 2.40 +9.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 63.7% 1.57 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.8%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mārupe1.4

Leevon / PPK1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MĀRUPE · PPG 1.29

LEEVON / PPK · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mārupe (H) 37.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +33.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.7%

Leevon / PPK (A) 37.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -36.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mārupe face Leevon / PPK in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mārupe a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Leevon / PPK 38%, so Leevon / PPK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mārupe and 1.5 for Leevon / PPK (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mārupe are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.00 for Leevon / PPK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - 1. Liga Predictions