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JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

JFK Ventspils

PPG 0.29 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Super Nova 2

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.7%0-27.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.6%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.6%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 42.0% 2.38 -16.9%

Draw 26.9% 27.8% 3.60 -1.9%

Away win 38.2% 42.0% 2.38 -9.1%

Over 2.5 51.2% 63.7% 1.57 -19.6%

Over 3.5 29.7% 42.9% 2.33 -18.5%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 32.9% 51.0% 1.96 -35.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 51.0% 1.96 -14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JFK Ventspils1.2

Super Nova 21.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 0.29

SUPER NOVA 2 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JFK Ventspils (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -16.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.9%

Super Nova 2 (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

JFK Ventspils face Super Nova 2 in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JFK Ventspils a 35% chance, the draw 27% and Super Nova 2 38%, so Super Nova 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for JFK Ventspils and 1.3 for Super Nova 2 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JFK Ventspils are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Super Nova 2. This match finished 0-2.

JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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