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Rosengård vs Trollhättan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Rosengård

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Trollhättan

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.0%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.6%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.3%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 61.7% 1.62 -24.8%

Draw 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -3.5%

Away win 26.7% 23.1% 4.33 +9.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 59.9% 1.67 -15.7%

Over 3.5 30.1% 38.2% 2.62 -21.1%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 30.8% 3.25 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosengård1.7

Trollhättan1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENGÅRD · PPG 1.38

TROLLHÄTTAN · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosengård (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -24.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.5%

Trollhättan (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosengård face Trollhättan in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosengård a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Trollhättan 27%, so Rosengård are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rosengård and 1.1 for Trollhättan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosengård are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Trollhättan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Rosengård vs Trollhättan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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