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Kristianstad vs Atvidabergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Kristianstad

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Atvidabergs FF

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.9%0-28.7%0-35.1%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.3%1-111.1%1-29.7%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.2%2-25.4%2-33.2%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Draw 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

Away win 51.9% 54.6% 1.83 -5.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.0% 2.50 -8.3%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 31.0% 38.2% 2.62 -18.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.0%

A 52% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad1.1

Atvidabergs FF1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 1.00

ATVIDABERGS FF · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad (H) 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

Atvidabergs FF (A) 51.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad face Atvidabergs FF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Atvidabergs FF 52%, so Atvidabergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kristianstad and 1.8 for Atvidabergs FF (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Atvidabergs FF. This match finished 5-2.

Kristianstad vs Atvidabergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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