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Trelleborg vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Trelleborg

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Utsikten

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.4%1-14.0%1-21.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.1%2-16.9%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.3%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-020.7%4+-115.6%4+-25.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.7% 88.5% 1.13 -21.2%

Draw 15.5% 14.7% 6.80 +3.2%

Away win 14.7% 6.7% 15.00 +72.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 74.1% 1.35 -7.9%

Over 3.5 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

BTTS 54.3% 52.6% 1.90 +3.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 85.5% 1.17 -9.6%

Away O1.5 20.2% 20.0% 5.00 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.3%

H 70% / xG 3.4-0.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.3%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 4–0 8.7%

#4 1–1 4.0%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trelleborg3.4

Utsikten0.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TRELLEBORG · PPG 1.78

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.64 for Home, form 1.78 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Trelleborg (H) 69.7%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -21.2%

Draw 15.5%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +3.2%

Utsikten (A) 14.7%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +72.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trelleborg face Utsikten in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trelleborg a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Utsikten 15%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Trelleborg and 0.8 for Utsikten (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trelleborg are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.56 for Utsikten. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Trelleborg vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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