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Laholm vs AFC Malmo Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Laholm

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

AFC Malmo

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.2%0-27.8%0-34.9%0-4+3.6%1 1-05.4%1-110.2%1-29.7%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.4%2-16.4%2-26.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 27.0% 3.70 +15.4%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -7.1%

Away win 45.6% 57.1% 1.75 -20.2%

Over 2.5 60.3% 69.0% 1.45 -12.6%

Over 3.5 37.6% 46.5% 2.15 -19.2%

BTTS 60.6% 70.4% 1.42 -14.0%

Home O1.5 35.3% 42.6% 2.35 -17.0%

Away O1.5 56.9% 64.5% 1.55 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.6%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 2–1 6.4%

#4 0–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laholm1.2

AFC Malmo1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHOLM · PPG 1.00

AFC MALMO · PPG 1.88

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Laholm (H) 31.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +15.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.1%

AFC Malmo (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Laholm face AFC Malmo in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laholm a 31% chance, the draw 23% and AFC Malmo 46%, so AFC Malmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Laholm and 1.9 for AFC Malmo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laholm are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.88 for AFC Malmo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Laholm vs AFC Malmo Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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