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AFC Malmo vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

AFC Malmo

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLD

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lund

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.4%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.9%1-110.8%1-27.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.8%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 52.4% 1.91 -10.6%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 29.2% 30.3% 3.30 -2.2%

Over 2.5 60.2% 60.6% 1.65 -0.7%

Over 3.5 36.9% 38.5% 2.60 -4.1%

BTTS 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 56.5% 1.77 -13.6%

Away O1.5 41.2% 40.8% 2.45 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Malmo1.7

Lund1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC MALMO · PPG 1.56

LUND · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AFC Malmo (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -10.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Lund (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Malmo face Lund in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Malmo a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Lund 29%, so AFC Malmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AFC Malmo and 1.4 for Lund (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Malmo are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.30 for Lund. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-5.

AFC Malmo vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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