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Tvååker vs Skövde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Tvååker

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Skövde AIK

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.9%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.5%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.6%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Draw 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Away win 23.7% 33.3% 3.00 -17.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

BTTS 54.3% 66.7% 1.50 -18.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 42.0% 2.38 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tvååker1.7

Skövde AIK0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TVÅÅKER · PPG 1.56

SKÖVDE AIK · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tvååker (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Skövde AIK (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvååker face Skövde AIK in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvååker a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Skövde AIK 24%, so Tvååker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tvååker and 0.9 for Skövde AIK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvååker are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Skövde AIK. This match finished 1-1.

Tvååker vs Skövde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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