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Lund vs Olympic Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

Lund

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWW

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Olympic

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.3%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.1%1-17.8%1-25.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.4%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-17.8%4+-25.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 56.5% 1.77 -1.4%

Draw 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

Away win 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -8.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 69.0% 1.45 -1.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 46.5% 2.15 -3.3%

BTTS 63.1% 70.4% 1.42 -10.4%

Home O1.5 65.8% 64.5% 1.55 +2.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lund2.4

Olympic1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LUND · PPG 2.14

OLYMPIC · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lund (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -1.4%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.6%

Olympic (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lund face Olympic in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lund a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Olympic 24%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lund and 1.3 for Olympic (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lund are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.88 for Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 7-1.

Lund vs Olympic Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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