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Angelholms FF vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Angelholms FF

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jonkopings Sodra

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.1%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.8%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.1%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 31.3% 3.20 +13.9%

Draw 26.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.5%

Away win 37.6% 50.0% 2.00 -24.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 51.0% 60.6% 1.65 -15.8%

Home O1.5 37.2% 37.7% 2.65 -1.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 51.3% 1.95 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.0%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1✓ 10.1%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angelholms FF1.3

Jonkopings Sodra1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGELHOLMS FF · PPG 0.89

JONKOPINGS SODRA · PPG 0.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Angelholms FF (H) 35.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.9%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.5%

Jonkopings Sodra (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angelholms FF face Jonkopings Sodra in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angelholms FF a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Jonkopings Sodra 38%, so Jonkopings Sodra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Angelholms FF and 1.2 for Jonkopings Sodra (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angelholms FF are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.33 for Jonkopings Sodra. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Angelholms FF vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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