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Skövde AIK vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Skövde AIK

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kristianstad

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-112.7%0-26.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-17.2%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 36.4% 2.75 -1.3%

Draw 28.6% 32.3% 3.10 -6.8%

Away win 35.5% 44.4% 2.25 -20.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 57.8% 1.73 -22.5%

Over 3.5 26.5% 36.4% 2.75 -16.3%

BTTS 49.7% 63.7% 1.57 -22.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 45.5% 2.20 -32.7%

Away O1.5 31.7% 45.5% 2.20 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.7%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skövde AIK1.1

Kristianstad1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SKÖVDE AIK · PPG 1.38

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Skövde AIK (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.3%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.8%

Kristianstad (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skövde AIK face Kristianstad in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skövde AIK a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Kristianstad 36%, so Skövde AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Skövde AIK and 1.0 for Kristianstad (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skövde AIK are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Kristianstad. This match finished 3-1.

Skövde AIK vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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