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TEC vs Sportlust '46 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

TEC

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sportlust '46

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.4%0-23.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.9%1-110.0%1-27.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.9%3-15.6%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 29.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.8% — — —

Over 3.5 37.7% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 55.5% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2✓ 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TEC1.8

Sportlust '461.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TEC · PPG 1.41

SPORTLUST '46 · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TEC (H) 46.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sportlust '46 (A) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TEC face Sportlust '46 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TEC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Sportlust '46 29%, so TEC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for TEC and 1.4 for Sportlust '46 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TEC are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.24 for Sportlust '46. This match finished 1-2.

TEC vs Sportlust '46 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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