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ADO 20 vs VV Scherpenzeel Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

ADO 20

PPG 2.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

VV Scherpenzeel

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.8%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.1%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.8%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 59.9% 1.67 -18.2%

Draw 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

Away win 24.9% 25.0% 4.00 -0.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 26.9% 40.7% 2.46 -20.3%

BTTS 52.6% 63.3% 1.58 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0✓ 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADO 201.5

VV Scherpenzeel1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ADO 20 · PPG 2.31

VV SCHERPENZEEL · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=49.0%

Win probability 1X2

ADO 20 (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -18.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.3%

VV Scherpenzeel (A) 24.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADO 20 face VV Scherpenzeel in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADO 20 a 49% chance, the draw 26% and VV Scherpenzeel 25%, so ADO 20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for ADO 20 and 1.1 for VV Scherpenzeel (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADO 20 are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.13 for VV Scherpenzeel. This match finished 1-0.

ADO 20 vs VV Scherpenzeel Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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