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Harkemase Boys vs Sportlust Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Harkemase Boys

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sportlust

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.4%0-24.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.1%1-110.9%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.2%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Draw 25.8% 26.3% 3.80 -1.2%

Away win 26.2% 34.7% 2.88 -14.7%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Over 3.5 36.3% 47.6% 2.10 -23.8%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harkemase Boys1.7

Sportlust1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HARKEMASE BOYS · PPG 1.50

SPORTLUST · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Harkemase Boys (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -4.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.2%

Sportlust (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Harkemase Boys face Sportlust in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harkemase Boys a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Sportlust 26%, so Harkemase Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Harkemase Boys and 1.4 for Sportlust (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harkemase Boys are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Sportlust. This match finished 4-1.

Harkemase Boys vs Sportlust Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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