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Staphorst vs Excelsior '31 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:30

Staphorst

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLD ··

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Excelsior '31

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.9%0-23.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.1%1-19.4%1-27.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.8%3-15.7%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

Draw 23.4% 26.7% 3.75 -7.3%

Away win 33.4% 33.3% 3.00 +0.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Over 3.5 39.4% 56.5% 1.77 -30.3%

BTTS 61.1% 77.5% 1.29 -21.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 66.7% 1.50 -17.6%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.1%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staphorst1.9

Excelsior '311.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STAPHORST · PPG 1.71

EXCELSIOR '31 · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Staphorst (H) 43.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -15.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.3%

Excelsior '31 (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Staphorst face Excelsior '31 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staphorst a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Excelsior '31 33%, so Staphorst are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Staphorst and 1.5 for Excelsior '31 (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staphorst are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.29 for Excelsior '31. This match finished 2-4.

Staphorst vs Excelsior '31 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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