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Hoogeveen vs Genemuiden Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Hoogeveen

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Genemuiden

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.0%0-25.6%0-33.5%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.0%1-19.4%1-28.8%1-35.5%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.9%2-17.4%2-26.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 26.3% 3.80 +33.4%

Draw 23.7% 25.0% 4.00 -3.1%

Away win 41.2% 59.9% 1.67 -31.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.5% 1.98 -10.9%

BTTS 60.7% 70.9% 1.41 -14.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.7%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1✓ 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoogeveen1.6

Genemuiden1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOOGEVEEN · PPG 1.63

GENEMUIDEN · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Hoogeveen (H) 35.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +33.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.1%

Genemuiden (A) 41.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoogeveen face Genemuiden in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoogeveen a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Genemuiden 41%, so Genemuiden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hoogeveen and 1.9 for Genemuiden (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoogeveen are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.69 for Genemuiden. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Hoogeveen vs Genemuiden Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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