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Harkemase Boys vs Hercules Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:30

Harkemase Boys

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Hercules

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.2%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.7%1-19.1%1-25.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.0%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 66.7% 1.50 -15.3%

Draw 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

Away win 21.6% 21.1% 4.75 +1.6%

Over 2.5 59.8% 58.8% 1.70 +1.7%

Over 3.5 38.2% 37.6% 2.66 +1.6%

BTTS 55.0% 55.9% 1.79 -1.6%

Home O1.5 61.2% 64.9% 1.54 -5.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 25.1% 3.98 +31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harkemase Boys2.1

Hercules1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HARKEMASE BOYS · PPG 1.80

HERCULES · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Harkemase Boys (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.6%

Hercules (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Harkemase Boys face Hercules in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harkemase Boys a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Hercules 22%, so Harkemase Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Harkemase Boys and 1.2 for Hercules (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harkemase Boys are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.79 for Hercules. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 5-3.

Harkemase Boys vs Hercules Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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