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USV Hercules vs Harkemase Boys Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

USV Hercules

PPG 1.88 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Harkemase Boys

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.2%0-26.6%0-33.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.0%1-111.2%1-29.0%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-17.7%2-26.2%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.2%3-13.5%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 48.8% 2.05 -29.1%

Draw 24.8% 27.8% 3.60 -6.4%

Away win 40.6% 34.7% 2.88 +16.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Over 3.5 34.6% 42.6% 2.35 -18.7%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

USV Hercules1.4

Harkemase Boys1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

USV HERCULES · PPG 1.88

HARKEMASE BOYS · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

USV Hercules (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.4%

Harkemase Boys (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

USV Hercules face Harkemase Boys in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USV Hercules a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Harkemase Boys 41%, so Harkemase Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for USV Hercules and 1.6 for Harkemase Boys (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USV Hercules are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.56 for Harkemase Boys. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 4-0.

USV Hercules vs Harkemase Boys Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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