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ADO '20 vs Staphorst Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

ADO '20

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Staphorst

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.6%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.2%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 28.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADO '202.0

Staphorst1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ADO '20 · PPG 2.21

STAPHORST · PPG 1.34

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ADO '20 (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Staphorst (A) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ADO '20 face Staphorst in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADO '20 a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Staphorst 29%, so ADO '20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for ADO '20 and 1.4 for Staphorst (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADO '20 are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.34 for Staphorst. This match finished 0-0.

ADO '20 vs Staphorst Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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