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Almere City II vs Koninklijke HFC Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Almere City II

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Koninklijke HFC

PPG 0.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.7%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.8%1-18.4%1-25.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.3%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-17.1%4+-24.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 44.1% 2.27 -10.8%

BTTS 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.8% 1.52 +0.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.8% 2.72 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–2✓ 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almere City II2.3

Koninklijke HFC1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERE CITY II · PPG 1.96

KONINKLIJKE HFC · PPG 0.66

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Almere City II (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -8.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Koninklijke HFC (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almere City II face Koninklijke HFC in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almere City II a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Koninklijke HFC 22%, so Almere City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Almere City II and 1.2 for Koninklijke HFC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almere City II are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 0.66 for Koninklijke HFC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Almere City II vs Koninklijke HFC Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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