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Barendrecht vs Katwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Barendrecht

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Katwijk

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.3%0-24.0%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.4%1-19.7%1-27.4%1-33.7%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.6%3-15.5%3-24.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.8%4+-22.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 34.5% 2.90 +31.9%

Draw 24.7% 26.3% 3.80 -3.7%

Away win 29.8% 52.4% 1.91 -25.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Over 3.5 37.8% 53.5% 1.87 -29.3%

BTTS 60.8% 73.5% 1.36 -17.3%

Home O1.5 55.5% 51.8% 1.93 +7.1%

Away O1.5 46.9% 65.4% 1.53 -28.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barendrecht1.8

Katwijk1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARENDRECHT · PPG 1.27

KATWIJK · PPG 1.11

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barendrecht (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +31.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.7%

Katwijk (A) 29.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barendrecht face Katwijk in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barendrecht a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Katwijk 30%, so Barendrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Barendrecht and 1.5 for Katwijk (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barendrecht are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.11 for Katwijk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Barendrecht vs Katwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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