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Koninklijke HFC vs Barendrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Koninklijke HFC

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Barendrecht

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.8%0-23.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.0%1-19.5%1-26.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.6%3-16.2%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 27.8% 37.0% 2.70 -15.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 44.1% 2.27 -16.7%

BTTS 60.3% 69.4% 1.44 -13.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 55.6% 1.80 -1.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 48.8% 2.05 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2✓ 6.5%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Koninklijke HFC2.0

Barendrecht1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KONINKLIJKE HFC · PPG 1.75

BARENDRECHT · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Koninklijke HFC (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +0.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Barendrecht (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Koninklijke HFC face Barendrecht in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Koninklijke HFC a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Barendrecht 28%, so Koninklijke HFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Koninklijke HFC and 1.4 for Barendrecht (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Koninklijke HFC are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.17 for Barendrecht. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Koninklijke HFC vs Barendrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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