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Rijnsburgse Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:30

Rijnsburgse Boys

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

3 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sparta Rotterdam II

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.1%0-23.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.2%1-16.6%1-26.8%1-34.6%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.4%2-17.1%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.5%3-15.1%3-25.2%3-33.6%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.5%4+-24.6%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 61.7% 1.62 -39.9%

Draw 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Away win 41.5% 26.7% 3.75 +55.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 78.1% 1.28 -13.9%

Over 3.5 46.0% 60.6% 1.65 -24.1%

BTTS 63.2% 76.9% 1.30 -17.8%

Home O1.5 61.7% 71.4% 1.40 -13.6%

Away O1.5 55.2% 49.8% 2.01 +10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-6

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.2%

A 42% / xG 2.2-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.8%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 2–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rijnsburgse Boys2.2

Sparta Rotterdam II2.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RIJNSBURGSE BOYS · PPG 1.79

SPARTA ROTTERDAM II · PPG 1.32

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rijnsburgse Boys (H) 37.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -39.9%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

Sparta Rotterdam II (A) 41.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +55.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijnsburgse Boys face Sparta Rotterdam II in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijnsburgse Boys a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Sparta Rotterdam II 42%, so Sparta Rotterdam II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Rijnsburgse Boys and 2.1 for Sparta Rotterdam II (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijnsburgse Boys are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.32 for Sparta Rotterdam II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 3-6.

Rijnsburgse Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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