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Hoek vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:30

Hoek

PPG 2.05 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Spakenburg

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.0%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.5%1-19.8%1-26.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.8%3-16.3%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 47.6% 2.10 +6.7%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 25.4% 36.4% 2.75 -18.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.7% 48.3% 2.07 -24.0%

BTTS 59.9% 71.4% 1.40 -16.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 58.8% 1.70 -4.3%

Away O1.5 37.5% 51.5% 1.94 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoek2.0

Spakenburg1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HOEK · PPG 2.05

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hoek (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Spakenburg (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoek face Spakenburg in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoek a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Spakenburg 25%, so Hoek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hoek and 1.3 for Spakenburg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoek are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.14 for Spakenburg. This match finished 0-2.

Hoek vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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