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Holbæk B&I vs Frem Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Holbæk B&I

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Frem

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.4%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.4%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-16.0%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 63.7% 1.57 -12.1%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Over 2.5 63.6% 65.4% 1.53 -2.7%

Over 3.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

BTTS 60.0% 65.4% 1.53 -8.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 67.6% 1.48 -11.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 34.2% 2.92 +6.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holbæk B&I2.1

Frem1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLBÆK B&I · PPG 1.79

FREM · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Holbæk B&I (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Frem (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holbæk B&I face Frem in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holbæk B&I a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Frem 22%, so Holbæk B&I are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Holbæk B&I and 1.1 for Frem (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holbæk B&I are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.50 for Frem. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.6%.

Holbæk B&I vs Frem Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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