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Frem vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Frem

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hørsholm-Usserød

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.7%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.2%1-19.4%1-26.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.6%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.9%3-16.4%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +3.6%

Over 2.5 63.6% 61.7% 1.62 +3.0%

Over 3.5 41.0% 40.2% 2.49 +2.1%

BTTS 62.8% 61.7% 1.62 +1.7%

Home O1.5 55.6% 63.3% 1.58 -12.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 31.4% 3.18 +34.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.8%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frem2.0

Hørsholm-Usserød1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FREM · PPG 1.14

HØRSHOLM-USSERØD · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Frem (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Hørsholm-Usserød (A) 24.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frem face Hørsholm-Usserød in Denmark - 3. Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frem a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Hørsholm-Usserød 25%, so Frem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Frem and 1.3 for Hørsholm-Usserød (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frem are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Hørsholm-Usserød. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +34.2%.

Frem vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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