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Vanløse vs Næsby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Vanløse

PPG 1.46 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Næsby

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.5%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.5%1-19.9%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 30.3% 3.30 +54.1%

Draw 23.4% 30.8% 3.25 -14.4%

Away win 30.0% 52.4% 1.91 -42.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 61.7% 1.62 +3.0%

Over 3.5 41.0% 40.2% 2.49 +2.1%

BTTS 63.8% 65.4% 1.53 -2.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 39.8% 2.51 +23.5%

Away O1.5 48.1% 56.5% 1.77 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.8%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vanløse1.8

Næsby1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VANLØSE · PPG 1.46

NÆSBY · PPG 1.34

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vanløse (H) 46.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +54.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.4%

Næsby (A) 30.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vanløse face Næsby in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vanløse a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Næsby 30%, so Vanløse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vanløse and 1.5 for Næsby (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vanløse are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.34 for Næsby. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Vanløse vs Næsby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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