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Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Grobiņa

PPG 0.85 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

BFC Daugavpils

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-114.2%0-29.2%0-34.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.6%2-15.9%2-23.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.3% 35.7% 2.80 -17.5%

Draw 26.2% 30.8% 3.25 -8.9%

Away win 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

Away O1.5 37.9% 47.6% 2.10 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobiņa0.9

BFC Daugavpils1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBIŅA · PPG 0.85

BFC DAUGAVPILS · PPG 0.92

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grobiņa (H) 25.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -17.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.9%

BFC Daugavpils (A) 48.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobiņa face BFC Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobiņa a 25% chance, the draw 26% and BFC Daugavpils 49%, so BFC Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Grobiņa and 1.3 for BFC Daugavpils (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobiņa are averaging 0.85 points per game versus 0.92 for BFC Daugavpils. This match finished 1-0.

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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