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KPV-j vs KuPS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:30

KPV-j

PPG 0.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KuPS Akatemia

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.0%0-24.4%0-33.2%0-4+3.0%1 1-03.3%1-17.3%1-28.0%1-35.8%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.8%3-13.9%3-24.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.7%4+-22.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 43.5% 2.30 -20.6%

Draw 21.9% 27.0% 3.70 -11.4%

Away win 43.5% 40.8% 2.45 +6.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 76.9% 1.30 -12.5%

Over 3.5 47.6% 57.8% 1.73 -17.6%

BTTS 65.8% 76.9% 1.30 -14.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 59.9% 1.67 -18.5%

Away O1.5 60.2% 59.9% 1.67 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob65.8%

A 44% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 6.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KPV-j1.8

KuPS Akatemia2.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KPV-J · PPG 0.70

KUPS AKATEMIA · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KPV-j (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.4%

KuPS Akatemia (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KPV-j face KuPS Akatemia in Finland - Ykkonen on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KPV-j a 35% chance, the draw 22% and KuPS Akatemia 44%, so KuPS Akatemia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for KPV-j and 2.2 for KuPS Akatemia (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KPV-j are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.40 for KuPS Akatemia. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 2-4.

KPV-j vs KuPS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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