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IF Karlstad II vs Vänersborgs FK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

IF Karlstad II

PPG 0.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vänersborgs FK

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.4%0-27.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.4%1-112.6%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.8%2-17.7%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 46.9% 2.13 -22.7%

Draw 27.3% 29.2% 3.42 -4.0%

Away win 36.4% 35.1% 2.85 +3.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 62.5% 1.60 -19.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 41.5% 2.41 -18.1%

BTTS 53.7% 66.7% 1.50 -19.4%

Home O1.5 33.0% 53.5% 1.87 -38.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 45.0% 2.22 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.7%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Karlstad II1.2

Vänersborgs FK1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IF KARLSTAD II · PPG 0.38

VÄNERSBORGS FK · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IF Karlstad II (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.13 · IMPLIED 46.9% EV -22.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.42 · IMPLIED 29.2% EV -4.0%

Vänersborgs FK (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Karlstad II face Vänersborgs FK in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Karlstad II a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Vänersborgs FK 36%, so Vänersborgs FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for IF Karlstad II and 1.3 for Vänersborgs FK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Karlstad II are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 1.11 for Vänersborgs FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 1-3.

IF Karlstad II vs Vänersborgs FK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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