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Lidköping vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Lidköping

PPG 0.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Skara

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-18.4%0-29.6%0-37.3%0-4+7.1%1 1-03.7%1-18.6%1-29.8%1-37.4%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.9%2-14.4%2-25.0%2-33.8%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.7%3-31.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 21.1% 4.75 -11.8%

Draw 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -3.0%

Away win 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Over 2.5 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

Over 3.5 39.3% 45.5% 2.20 -13.5%

BTTS 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 39.8% 2.51 -22.4%

Away O1.5 67.8% 68.5% 1.46 -1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob55.0%

A 60% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lidköping1.0

Skara2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LIDKÖPING · PPG 0.25

SKARA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.26 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lidköping (H) 16.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -11.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.0%

Skara (A) 60.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lidköping face Skara in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lidköping a 17% chance, the draw 23% and Skara 61%, so Skara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lidköping and 2.3 for Skara (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lidköping are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.67 for Skara. This match finished 1-1.

Lidköping vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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