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Ahlafors vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Ahlafors

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Kumla

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.3%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.9%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.6%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-18.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.1% 70.4% 1.42 -6.1%

Draw 18.2% 23.8% 4.20 -14.1%

Away win 15.7% 17.4% 5.75 -5.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 45.7% 2.19 -5.4%

BTTS 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Home O1.5 65.8% 70.4% 1.42 -6.6%

Away O1.5 25.6% 30.5% 3.28 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.0%

H 66% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ahlafors2.4

Kumla0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.78

KUMLA · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 1.78 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ahlafors (H) 66.1%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -6.1%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.1%

Kumla (A) 15.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ahlafors face Kumla in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ahlafors a 66% chance, the draw 18% and Kumla 16%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Ahlafors and 0.9 for Kumla (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ahlafors are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Kumla. This match finished 7-1.

Ahlafors vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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