Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Motala vs IF Karlstad II

Motala vs IF Karlstad II Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Motala

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

IF Karlstad II

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.2%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.8%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 49.5% 2.02 +3.0%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 24.4% 33.9% 2.95 -16.8%

Over 2.5 51.4% 63.7% 1.57 -19.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 41.2% 2.43 -24.9%

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 26.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motala1.6

IF Karlstad II1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTALA · PPG 1.38

IF KARLSTAD II · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Motala (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +3.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

IF Karlstad II (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motala face IF Karlstad II in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motala a 51% chance, the draw 25% and IF Karlstad II 24%, so Motala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Motala and 1.0 for IF Karlstad II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motala are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.89 for IF Karlstad II. This match finished 2-2.

Motala vs IF Karlstad II Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions