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Stenungsund vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

Stenungsund

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Herrestads

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.0%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.2%1-17.3%1-25.1%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.3%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-18.0%4+-25.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 49.5% 2.02 +9.9%

Draw 21.3% 28.2% 3.55 -14.6%

Away win 24.3% 35.7% 2.80 -19.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 72.5% 1.38 -5.9%

Over 3.5 48.0% 51.5% 1.94 -6.9%

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stenungsund2.5

Herrestads1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STENUNGSUND · PPG 2.00

HERRESTADS · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stenungsund (H) 54.4%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +9.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.6%

Herrestads (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stenungsund face Herrestads in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stenungsund a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Herrestads 24%, so Stenungsund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Stenungsund and 1.4 for Herrestads (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stenungsund are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.11 for Herrestads. This match finished 0-1.

Stenungsund vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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