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Grebbestad vs Stenungsund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Grebbestad

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Stenungsund

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.5%0-23.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.1%1-19.0%1-26.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.2%3-16.2%3-24.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-15.0%4+-23.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 53.2% 1.88 -15.2%

Draw 21.5% 27.4% 3.65 -12.9%

Away win 33.4% 32.8% 3.05 +1.9%

Over 2.5 64.6% 73.5% 1.36 -12.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.1% 1.92 -16.5%

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 56.2% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grebbestad2.0

Stenungsund1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GREBBESTAD · PPG 1.89

STENUNGSUND · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grebbestad (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -15.2%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.9%

Stenungsund (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grebbestad face Stenungsund in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grebbestad a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Stenungsund 33%, so Grebbestad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Grebbestad and 1.5 for Stenungsund (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grebbestad are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.88 for Stenungsund. This match finished 1-1.

Grebbestad vs Stenungsund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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