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Skara vs Tord Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Skara

PPG 2.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tord

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.1%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.6%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-17.7%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-18.5%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 63.7% 1.57 -0.1%

Draw 19.3% 23.1% 4.33 -9.9%

Away win 17.1% 22.7% 4.40 -14.9%

Over 2.5 62.6% 71.4% 1.40 -12.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 48.8% 2.05 -19.2%

BTTS 54.7% 69.0% 1.45 -20.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 70.4% 1.42 -7.6%

Away O1.5 22.6% 39.2% 2.55 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.7%

H 64% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–1✓ 9.4%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skara2.5

Tord0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SKARA · PPG 2.75

TORD · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Skara (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -0.1%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -9.9%

Tord (A) 17.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skara face Tord in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skara a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Tord 17%, so Skara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Skara and 0.8 for Tord (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skara are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.57 for Tord. This match finished 2-1.

Skara vs Tord Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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