Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Vänersborgs IF vs Tord

Vänersborgs IF vs Tord Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Vänersborgs IF

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tord

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.2%0-26.4%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.8%1-110.3%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.3%2-26.5%2-33.9%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.5%3-23.1%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 35.1% 2.85 -9.9%

Draw 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -8.3%

Away win 44.7% 47.6% 2.10 -6.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 65.4% 1.53 -5.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 43.5% 2.30 -9.6%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 40.1% 47.6% 2.10 -15.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.1% 1.75 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.8%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vänersborgs IF1.4

Tord1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄNERSBORGS IF · PPG 0.56

TORD · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vänersborgs IF (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -9.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.3%

Tord (A) 44.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vänersborgs IF face Tord in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vänersborgs IF a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Tord 45%, so Tord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vänersborgs IF and 1.8 for Tord (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vänersborgs IF are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.50 for Tord. This match finished 0-1.

Vänersborgs IF vs Tord Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions