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Eastern United vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 05:15

Eastern United

PPG 1.10 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Adelaide Victory

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.1%0-27.0%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.9%2-17.6%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 26.7% 3.75 +51.1%

Draw 24.6% 24.4% 4.10 +0.5%

Away win 35.0% 60.6% 1.65 -42.3%

Over 2.5 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 41.5% 2.41 -11.3%

BTTS 54.6% 62.9% 1.59 -13.2%

Home O1.5 37.4% 34.1% 2.93 +9.6%

Away O1.5 48.2% 64.9% 1.54 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 35% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 5.9%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern United1.3

Adelaide Victory1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN UNITED · PPG 1.10

ADELAIDE VICTORY · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eastern United (H) 40.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +51.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.5%

Adelaide Victory (A) 35.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -42.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern United face Adelaide Victory in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern United a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Adelaide Victory 35%, so Eastern United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Eastern United and 1.5 for Adelaide Victory (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern United are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.56 for Adelaide Victory. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.0%. This match finished 4-2.

Eastern United vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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