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Francs Borains U21 vs Lierse K. U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Francs Borains U21

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lierse K. U21

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.3%0-23.5%0-32.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-03.2%1-16.8%1-27.2%1-35.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.3%2-35.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-02.2%3-14.7%3-25.0%3-33.5%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.8%4+-24.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 40.8% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 49.4% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 57.7% — — —

Away O1.5 59.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 1–2 7.2%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 2–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Francs Borains U212.0

Lierse K. U212.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FRANCS BORAINS U21 · PPG 1.34

LIERSE K. U21 · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Francs Borains U21 (H) 38.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lierse K. U21 (A) 40.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Francs Borains U21 face Lierse K. U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Francs Borains U21 a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Lierse K. U21 41%, so Lierse K. U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Francs Borains U21 and 2.1 for Lierse K. U21 (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Francs Borains U21 are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.45 for Lierse K. U21. This match finished 3-0.

Francs Borains U21 vs Lierse K. U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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