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RAAL LL U21 vs Waasland-B. U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:30

RAAL LL U21

PPG 1.60 · HOME

4 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Waasland-B. U21

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.9%0-25.8%0-33.8%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.7%1-19.1%1-28.9%1-35.8%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.8%3-13.6%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 44.4% 2.25 -31.1%

Draw 21.8% 28.6% 3.50 -23.7%

Away win 47.6% 38.5% 2.60 +23.8%

Over 2.5 67.9% 66.7% 1.50 +1.8%

Over 3.5 46.3% — — —

BTTS 67.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob67.5%

A 48% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RAAL LL U211.5

Waasland-B. U212.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RAAL LL U21 · PPG 1.60

WAASLAND-B. U21 · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

RAAL LL U21 (H) 30.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -31.1%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -23.7%

Waasland-B. U21 (A) 47.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

RAAL LL U21 face Waasland-B. U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RAAL LL U21 a 31% chance, the draw 22% and Waasland-B. U21 48%, so Waasland-B. U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for RAAL LL U21 and 2.0 for Waasland-B. U21 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RAAL LL U21 are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.09 for Waasland-B. U21. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 4-5.

RAAL LL U21 vs Waasland-B. U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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