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Waasland-Beveren U21 vs RFC de Liege U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Waasland-Beveren U21

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

RFC de Liege U21

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.3%0-21.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.7%1-16.1%1-25.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.2%3-17.0%3-25.7%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-18.5%4+-27.0%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 85.5% 1.17 -38.1%

Draw 21.5% 13.3% 7.50 +36.8%

Away win 25.6% 10.0% 10.00 +93.6%

Over 2.5 68.3% 85.5% 1.17 -20.1%

Over 3.5 46.7% 70.4% 1.42 -33.7%

BTTS 63.5% 62.1% 1.61 +2.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 53% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.1%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 6.5%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waasland-Beveren U212.6

RFC de Liege U211.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WAASLAND-BEVEREN U21 · PPG 1.45

RFC DE LIEGE U21 · PPG 0.69

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Waasland-Beveren U21 (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -38.1%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +36.8%

RFC de Liege U21 (A) 25.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +93.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waasland-Beveren U21 face RFC de Liege U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waasland-Beveren U21 a 53% chance, the draw 22% and RFC de Liege U21 26%, so Waasland-Beveren U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Waasland-Beveren U21 and 1.6 for RFC de Liege U21 (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waasland-Beveren U21 are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.69 for RFC de Liege U21. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.2%.

Waasland-Beveren U21 vs RFC de Liege U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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