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Kári vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:15

Kári

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.6%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.3%1-15.0%1-22.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.3%2-17.8%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-114.2%4+-26.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.3% 63.7% 1.57 +8.8%

Draw 15.9% 25.0% 4.00 -21.8%

Away win 14.7% 25.0% 4.00 -24.7%

Over 2.5 68.2% 76.9% 1.30 -11.3%

Over 3.5 48.2% 60.2% 1.66 -20.0%

BTTS 59.9% 76.9% 1.30 -22.1%

Home O1.5 77.3% 73.0% 1.37 +5.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 47.4% 2.11 -27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob59.9%

H 69% / xG 3.1-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.7%

#2 2–0✓ 8.3%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kári3.1

Thróttur Vogar0.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KÁRI · PPG 1.89

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.20 for Home, form 1.89 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kári (H) 69.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +8.8%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -21.8%

Thróttur Vogar (A) 14.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kári face Thróttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kári a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Thróttur Vogar 15%, so Kári are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Kári and 0.9 for Thróttur Vogar (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kári are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.00 for Thróttur Vogar. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Kári vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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