Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Thróttur Vogar vs Selfoss

Thróttur Vogar vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Selfoss

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.8%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.0%1-18.1%1-26.6%1-33.6%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.8%3-16.1%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.4%4+-24.4%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 32.3% 3.10 +45.7%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 30.7% 54.1% 1.85 -43.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 75.2% 1.33 -10.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 56.5% 1.77 -23.0%

BTTS 63.2% 76.9% 1.30 -17.8%

Home O1.5 59.7% 52.4% 1.91 +14.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 69.0% 1.45 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 47% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thróttur Vogar2.1

Selfoss1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 2.11

SELFOSS · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Thróttur Vogar (H) 47.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +45.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Selfoss (A) 30.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -43.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thróttur Vogar face Selfoss in Iceland - 2. Deild on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thróttur Vogar a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Selfoss 31%, so Thróttur Vogar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Thróttur Vogar and 1.6 for Selfoss (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thróttur Vogar are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.67 for Selfoss. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Thróttur Vogar vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 2. Deild Predictions