Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Vikingur Olafsiik vs Thróttur Vogar

Vikingur Olafsiik vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Vikingur Olafsiik

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.3%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.2%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.0%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Away win 24.4% 33.9% 2.95 -16.8%

Over 2.5 62.8% 78.1% 1.28 -19.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 58.1% 1.72 -32.2%

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 60.2% 69.0% 1.45 -12.7%

Away O1.5 35.3% 56.2% 1.78 -37.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–2 5.0%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur Olafsiik2.1

Thróttur Vogar1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR OLAFSIIK · PPG 1.88

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur Olafsiik (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +1.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

Thróttur Vogar (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur Olafsiik face Thróttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur Olafsiik a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Thróttur Vogar 24%, so Vikingur Olafsiik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Vikingur Olafsiik and 1.1 for Thróttur Vogar (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur Olafsiik are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.00 for Thróttur Vogar. This match finished 2-1.

Vikingur Olafsiik vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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