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Fjolnir vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Fjolnir

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.3%0-21.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.5%1-14.1%1-23.4%1-31.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.0%2-16.6%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.3%3-17.1%3-25.8%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-112.8%4+-210.5%4+-35.7%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.9% 57.1% 1.75 +4.8%

Draw 16.4% 25.6% 3.90 -21.6%

Away win 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Over 2.5 76.0% 83.3% 1.20 -8.8%

Over 3.5 55.5% 67.1% 1.49 -17.3%

BTTS 69.1% 82.0% 1.22 -15.7%

Home O1.5 78.4% 76.9% 1.30 +1.9%

Away O1.5 48.5% 58.5% 1.71 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.1%

H 60% / xG 3.2-1.6 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 5.4%

#4 3–2 5.8%

#5 4–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjolnir3.2

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir1.6

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FJOLNIR · PPG 2.00

FJARDABYGGD / LEIKNIR · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fjolnir (H) 59.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +4.8%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -21.6%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjolnir face Fjardabyggd / Leiknir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjolnir a 60% chance, the draw 16% and Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 24%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Fjolnir and 1.6 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjolnir are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Fjolnir vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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