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Selfoss vs Kári Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Selfoss

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kári

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.0%0-21.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.9%1-15.3%1-25.0%1-33.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.9%2-17.1%2-26.6%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.4%3-16.4%3-25.9%3-33.7%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-18.2%4+-27.6%4+-34.7%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 60.2% 1.66 -14.5%

Draw 20.2% 23.8% 4.20 -9.1%

Away win 28.3% 28.2% 3.55 +0.3%

Over 2.5 71.8% — — —

Over 3.5 51.6% 68.5% 1.46 -24.7%

BTTS 69.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 55.2% 58.5% 1.71 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.1%

H 52% / xG 2.7-1.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2✓ 6.6%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selfoss2.7

Kári1.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SELFOSS · PPG 2.12

KÁRI · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Selfoss (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -14.5%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.1%

Kári (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Selfoss face Kári in Iceland - 2. Deild on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selfoss a 52% chance, the draw 20% and Kári 28%, so Selfoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Selfoss and 1.9 for Kári (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selfoss are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.67 for Kári. This match finished 2-2.

Selfoss vs Kári Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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