Today / Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League / Foolad FC vs Esteghlal FC

Foolad FC vs Esteghlal FC Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:30

Foolad FC

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Esteghlal FC

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-116.6%0-27.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.4%1-113.0%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.0%2-15.1%2-22.1%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.6%3-11.3%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 26.7% 3.75 +16.3%

Draw 32.9% 32.3% 3.10 +2.0%

Away win 36.1% 51.3% 1.95 -29.6%

Over 2.5 34.2% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.0% 3.85 +19.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 43.5% 2.30 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 19.8%

#2 0–1 16.6%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 1–1 13.0%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Foolad FC0.8

Esteghlal FC0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FOOLAD FC · PPG 1.49

ESTEGHLAL FC · PPG 1.78

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.06, combined xG 1.62 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Foolad FC (H) 31.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +16.3%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.0%

Esteghlal FC (A) 36.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Foolad FC face Esteghlal FC in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Foolad FC a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Esteghlal FC 36%, so Esteghlal FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Foolad FC and 0.8 for Esteghlal FC (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Foolad FC are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.78 for Esteghlal FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Foolad FC vs Esteghlal FC Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League Predictions