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Lindome vs Västra Frölunda Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

Lindome

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Västra Frölunda

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.4%0-23.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.2%1-18.7%1-27.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.3%3-15.6%3-24.6%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.3%4+-23.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 29.2% 37.0% 2.70 -12.7%

Over 2.5 66.1% 76.9% 1.30 -14.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 57.1% 1.75 -21.3%

BTTS 63.1% 78.1% 1.28 -19.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 66.7% 1.50 -15.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.5%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lindome2.0

Västra Frölunda1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LINDOME · PPG 1.22

VÄSTRA FRÖLUNDA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lindome (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

Västra Frölunda (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lindome face Västra Frölunda in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lindome a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Västra Frölunda 29%, so Lindome are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lindome and 1.7 for Västra Frölunda (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lindome are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.38 for Västra Frölunda. This match finished 2-1.

Lindome vs Västra Frölunda Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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