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Galtabacks vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Galtabacks

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jonsered

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.1%0-25.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.0%1-110.9%1-28.4%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.3%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.3%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 38.5% 2.60 -8.5%

Draw 24.2% 26.9% 3.72 -6.0%

Away win 40.6% 45.9% 2.18 -11.5%

Over 2.5 59.9% 73.5% 1.36 -18.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 50.5% 1.98 -27.1%

BTTS 61.3% 74.6% 1.34 -17.9%

Home O1.5 41.3% 54.1% 1.85 -23.6%

Away O1.5 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–2 5.5%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galtabacks1.5

Jonsered1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GALTABACKS · PPG 0.88

JONSERED · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Galtabacks (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.72 · IMPLIED 26.9% EV -6.0%

Jonsered (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galtabacks face Jonsered in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galtabacks a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Jonsered 41%, so Jonsered are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Galtabacks and 1.6 for Jonsered (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galtabacks are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.62 for Jonsered. This match finished 1-1.

Galtabacks vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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